FALL 2024
Wednesdays at 3:00 pm, Seminar Room SLAB 103 / Virtual SLAB 103
(unless stated otherwise)
Aug 21: NO SEMINAR
Aug 28: NO SEMINAR
Sep 04: NO SEMINAR
Sep 11: NO SEMINAR
Sep 18: Peisen Tan
Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School
(one-hour OCE student seminar)
The Melodious Encounter of the Atmosphere and the Ocean:
Exploring Air-Sea Momentum Transfer Across a Wide Range of Wind Forcing
Ocean waves profoundly contribute to the upper ocean turbulence and mixing. Most ocean waves are generated by the wind. However, a lack of quantitative measurement of wave growth under wind forcings exists due to instrument limitations. To thoroughly study the wave growth under wind forcing and improve numerical wave models, we conducted laboratory experiments for a wide range of wind forcing in the University of Miami's wind-wave facility SUSTAIN (SUrge STructural Air-sea INteraction Facility). Pure wind seas, irregular JONSWAP spectrum waves, and regular monochromatic waves at different frequencies were generated by the mechanical paddles for testing. We directly measured the static air pressure, wind speeds, and water surface displacement at sampling frequencies up to 1000 Hz. In addition, a wave follower was deployed to sample the static pressure behind the wave crest. Our wave growth rates agree with the revisited Miles' Theory that incorporates airside turbulence. The Jeffreys' Sheltering hypothesis remains valid, although it depends on an empirical constant: the sheltering coefficient A. We found that A follows a "U" shape with wind forcing: The strongest aerodynamic sheltering, corresponding to the smallest A, was identified at U10 around 33 m/s (Category-1 hurricane intensity). Our wind stress partition at the air-sea interface agrees with previous laboratory and model results. Our findings suggest that airflow separation plays a pivotal role in the wave growth and that some tuning of existing wave growth theories paves the way for a novel parameterization of wave growth and wind input in future wave models.
Sep 25: Dr. Myles Allen
Department of Physics, University of Oxford, UK
Guest of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Forecast-Based Attribution:
A Probabilistic Approach to Storylines, or a Storyline Approach to Probabilities
Myles Allen, discussing work led by Nicholas Leach, Shirin Ermis & Olivia Vashti Ayim
Recording Available at COMPASS ON DEMAND
In examining the impact of external climate drivers on extreme weather, there has been a lively discussion of the relative merits of probabilistic versus storyline framings. The probabilistic framing uses large ensembles to assess the impact of an external factor on the occurrence-probability of a certain class of extreme event, inspired in some way by the event that actually occurred. Storylines use detailed simulation of the event itself to assess the role of external factors in its evolution or magnitude. This talk argues that we can use operation seasonal or even medium-range ensemble forecasts to develop a new experimental design for the investigation of causes of extreme weather events that combines some of the advantages of both framings, opening the door to applying the best meteorological simulation tools on the planet to address climate questions. I illustrate the point with one of the most exceptional weather events of recent times, the 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest, and the less exceptional but still damaging Storm Eunice of 2022. Whenever you hear the phrase "impossible without climate change" referring to a short-term weather event, there is probably research to be done.
Myles Allen is Head of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics in the Department of Physics, University of Oxford, and Professor of Geosystem Science in the School of Geography and the Environment. His research focuses on how human and natural influences on climate contribute to climate change and risks of extreme weather. In 2003, Allen introduced the concept of probabilistic attribution of extreme weather events, and in 2005, the notion of a finite carbon budget, implying net zero emissions of carbon dioxide are necessary to halt global warming. He has served on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, most recently as a Coordinating Lead Author on the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C. He was awarded the Appleton Medal and Prize from the Institute of Physics "for his important contributions to the detection and attribution of human influence on climate and quantifying uncertainty in climate predictions", featured on the BBC's "Life Scientific" as "the physicist behind net zero", was awarded a CBE "for services to climate change attribution, prediction and net zero", and is a Fellow of the Royal Society.
Oct 02: Dr. Lingwei Li
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder
Guest of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Understanding Changes of Global Ocean Circulation
Using Geotracers in Earth System Models
Recording Available at COMPASS ON DEMAND
Marine radiocarbon (14C) is widely used to trace deep ocean circulation, providing insight into the atmosphere-ocean exchange of CO2. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), radiocarbon reconstructions suggest that the deep waters were poorly ventilated, trapping CO2 in the deep ocean and thus limiting the air-sea carbon exchange. In the first part of the presentation, I will share results from two transient climate model simulations with radiocarbon and ideal age tracers, and discuss what we can learn from these tracer-enabled simulations about the mechanisms of global ocean ventilation during the last deglaciation. Although simulated radiocarbon shows reduced ventilation at the LGM, the true model ventilation age is modestly younger mainly due to a stronger simulated glacial Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) transport. Notably, the ocean ventilation age is considerably older around 14-12 ka than at the LGM because of a weakening of AABW transport. Our study suggests that, while 14C is the tracer most relevant to water ventilation ages, the inferred age can be different from the true age of a water mass. That means that, how radiocarbon should be used to infer ocean circulation changes, warrants further exploration. In the second part of the presentation, I will briefly introduce an ongoing project focusing on the sea ice-ocean exchange of microplastics in the Arctic, using a fully coupled Earth system model (CESM) with microplastic tracers.
Oct 09: NO SEMINAR
Oct 16: Junfei Xia
Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School
(one-hour MPO student seminar)
Attention Tells the Story – Vision Transformer Applications in SAR Imagery and
Dynamic System Decoding From Drifter Data
Recording Available at COMPASS ON DEMAND
Recent advancements in machine learning, particularly Vision Transformers (ViT), have opened new opportunities for analyzing complex datasets in various scientific fields. In this presentation, we explore two distinct applications of ViT within the realm of oceanographic data analysis. The first application focuses on Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery, where ViT's attention mechanisms are leveraged to identify both structural and textural features, surpassing traditional Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) in classification accuracy. Using a training dataset of VV polarized SAR images, ViT achieved high precision, recall, and F1 scores above 0.97 across geophysical categories when tested on a sub-dataset of 5000 images. An additional test on the AI4Arctic Sea Ice dataset, which includes two polarized images (HH and HV) with different spatial resolutions and preprocessing steps, demonstrated an accuracy of around 90%. Despite the differences in polarization and spatial characteristics, ViT proved to be adaptable and effective in handling these variations.
In the second application, we introduce a novel approach to decoding dynamic systems from drifter data. A multilabel ViT model was first trained on drifter trajectories derived from simple simulated velocity fields. This trained model was then evaluated using real-world observational drifter data from the SPLASH and LASER experiments. The results demonstrate that ViT, after proper training, can effectively identify underlying dynamic systems from drifter trajectories, revealing phenomena such as shear flows, converging / diverging nodes, and various foci and saddle points. Central to both applications is the attention mechanism – particularly multihead attention and overall attention derived from the attention rollout method – which provides insights into the interpretability of the ViT model. These findings not only highlight the versatility of Vision Transformers in oceanographic data analysis but also propose new directions for improving the accuracy and interpretability of machine learning models in Earth science.
Oct 23: Dr. Mathieu Ratynski
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School
Atmospheric Gravity Wave Observations:
Exploring New Frontiers With Aeolus Wind Data and Cloud Deck Imagery
Recording Available at COMPASS ON DEMAND
Understanding and predicting the evolution of global climate strongly relies on accurate knowledge of dynamical processes in the middle atmosphere, such as internal gravity waves (IGWs). These small-scale atmospheric waves pose a significant challenge for climate models, where inadequate parameterization can lead to considerable biases in predictions of future atmospheric circulation changes. This seminar introduces new observational strategies and analytical methods for studying gravity waves. The first part focuses on global wind measurements from the ESA's Aeolus satellite, designed to provide wind speed data from the surface up to 30 km. We will present different methods for gravity wave analysis, with a specific focus on waves generated by convective events. The Aeolus-derived parameters, such as horizontal and vertical wavelengths, will be compared with those from GPS radio occultation missions like GRAS aboard MetOp satellites. Additionally, comparisons with the ERA5 reanalysis model will be used to evaluate Aeolus' capability to capture and resolve IGWs. By incorporating data from two historical ground-based LATMOS campaigns, using instruments similar to the ALADIN lidar onboard Aeolus, this study critically assesses the discrepancies between model predictions and Aeolus' empirical observations.
The second part of the seminar presents recent research conducted at UM, introducing an innovative approach to observing gravity waves through stratocumulus cloud decks. Using geostationary satellite imagery, this work develops new analytical methods for identifying wave signatures, underscoring the potential of underutilized data channels. Together, these studies demonstrate the wealth of untapped information within current observational datasets and propose new opportunities for improving the understanding and parameterization of gravity waves and their broader impacts on atmospheric dynamics.
Oct 30: NO SEMINMAR
Nov 06: Samantha Nebylitsa
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School
(one-hour ATM student seminar)
Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensification
to Environmental and Microphysical Conditions
Recording Available at COMPASS ON DEMAND
The environment around tropical cyclones (TCs) has been shown to play an integral role in the intensification of the storm. Two main parameters, vertical wind shear, defined as the vector difference between the winds at 200 and 850 hPa, as well as mid-tropospheric moisture, commonly the average relative humidity (RH) between the 500-700 hPa layers, are calculated within a 200-800 km annulus from the TC center to indicate the environment. All intensifying Atlantic TCs between 1980 and 2021 that underwent three distinct intensification rates: slow (SI; 5-10 kt 24 hr–1), moderate (MI; 15-25 kt 24 hr–1), and rapid (RI; ≥ 30 kt 24 hr–1) are analyzed. Distributions of shear and RH in the standard environment are evaluated, as well as two additional areas, a 100-600 km annulus to represent a smaller environment and a 0-250 km radius to represent the inner core and TC itself from reanalysis data. The distributions show that although low shear and high RH are more favorable for RI, there is still a significant probability that RI can occur in less favorable environments. Evaluating the shear and RH over the 48 hours prior to onset indicates various patterns in the progression of these variables to onset in the different annuli and intensification rates. This provides a more detailed picture on how the environmental evolution around TCs is important for intensification.
Using the reanalysis data collected from all RI and SI events, the climatologically averaged profiles of environmental wind, moisture, and temperature were used to force the environment of an idealized model to further discriminate the structural and thermodynamic differences of RI and SI storms. On average, RI storms exhibit more rapid vertical alignment and axisymmeterization at onset compared to SI storms which display more dry air ventilation. Despite these differences at onset, the RI and SI storms were identical just 24 hours prior, once again indicating that it is the storms evolution over time that influences the intensification rate and not a standalone value at a particular time. To address microphysical uncertainties within a parameterized scheme, the fall speed of frozen hydrometeors is adjusted. Initial results indicate that a lower speed affects the onset time of RI but faster falling particles inhibit RI. Investigation into the near storm environment and storm structure is underway and will provide evidence of the effect of hydrometeor fall speed on intensification rate.
Nov 12 (Tuesday, 11:00 am): Dr. Alan Kirschenbaum
Technion – Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa
Guest of the Department of Ocean Sciences
Hurricanes and Preparedness: Making the Best Decisions
Recording Available at COMPASS ON DEMAND
The field of emergency preparedness and response has been driven recently by training efforts utilizing software-based technology to mitigate and respond to potential and / or actual crisis situations. Yet, despite this effort, numerous research findings highlight the failures of both disaster and emergency agencies as well as private sector organizations in dealing with both major disruptions as well as local emergencies. The recent history of hurricanes is one example frequently studied. I argue that a critical missing piece to rectify such failures, particularly in the training process, can be attained by refocusing on organizational processes toward preparedness / response with greater attention being paid to the context of how decisions are actually made and who makes them.
This critical missing element in preparation / response will be addressed here by laying out how data analytics associated with real-time behavioral decisions during a disaster simulation can be utilized in optimizing the decision-making process. This will provide a window into why protocols are not adhered to or how informal social networks within organizations are critical elements affecting decisions. To delve into this organizational reality, an emphasis will be put on not only the human factor in decision-making, but the organizational context within which interaction among and between employees takes place that affect how and what decisions are made.
Alan Kirschenbaum is a world-renowned expert in the field of disaster risk management, transportation security, and a popular lecturer, author, and advisor to governments, public institutions, and security-crisis-safety related hi-tech startup companies. He has appeared as a keynote speaker at a number of international conferences. He was a senior member of the Faculty of Management and Senior Research Fellow at the Neaman Institute for National Policy Research at the Technion Israel Institute of Technology and the initiator and coordinator of The BEMOSA Consortium (Behavioral Modeling for Security in Airports), a 15-partner Europe-wide research project aimed at improving security in airports. He also was a participating partner in PsyCris (Psycho-Social Support in Crisis Management), focusing on contingency planning, an EU project dealing with mass disasters and their psychosocial consequences, as well as senior research consultant to Israel's "Making Cities Resilient" program. He is affiliated with the Haifa University graduate program for Emergency Management. As well as authoring dozens of peer-reviewed scientific journal articles and book chapters, he has served on the editorial boards of leading international journals, on executive boards of international research committees, international academic associations, and past director of research to the Population Behavior Section, Israel's Northern Region Home Front Command. He was involved in a Canadian Department of Defense-funded project, co-heading an Israel Ministry of Science research agenda on preparing populations for earthquakes, and member of the scientific board for Israel's National Knowledge and Research Center for Emergency Readiness. Professor Kirschenbaum is presently engaged in a number of applied research projects based on national surveys that focus on the impact of social networks on bystander behavior, community impact on reducing hospital surge, scenario-based training for organizations during crises, and longitudinal behavioral changes during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nov 13: Dr. Yasushi Fujiwara
Kobe University, Japan
Guest of Milan Curcic, Department of Ocean Sciences
Numerical Study of Interaction Between Nonbreaking Waves and Turbulence
Recording Available at COMPASS ON DEMAND
Surface waves produce turbulence in the water, whereby influence the sea surface temperature. Wave tank experiments report that waves can produce turbulence even in the absence of wind. Proper understanding and interpretation of these results, especially the clarification of difference from Langmuir circulations, are essential for an accurate modeling of air-sea interaction. Recent numerical studies using free-surface numerical models suggest the viscous attenuation of waves and resulting Eulerian streaming cause CL2 instability [Leibovich, 1983] producing turbulence. Here, we investigate this process using a newly developed numerical code that simulates the two-phase fluid motions, especially focusing on the role of air-water coupling. As waves are freely propagated, turbulent eddies elongated in the wave-propagation direction were observed. Compared to the water-only simulation, the resulting water-side turbulence was enhanced. Energy budget analysis reveals that a large amount of energy is dissipated at the viscous boundary layer of air, where a strong shear is present. This enhances the production of Eulerian streaming at the upper water layer, which results in stronger instability. The process was successfully reproduced with a Craik-Leibovich type wave-averaged simulation, where the Eulerian streaming is forced through the "virtual wave stress" of Longuet-Higgins [1969] with a modification for the enhanced wave attenuation due to air-side boundary layer.
Nov 20: NO SEMINAR (RoRo out of town)
Nov 27: NO SEMINAR (Thanksgiving Recess)
Dec 04: Hanna Miličević
University of Zagreb, Croatia
Guest of Milan Curcic, Department of Ocean Sciences
The Effects of Submerged Sill Geometry
on the Morphodynamics of Artificial Beaches
The Croatian coastline, which stretches over 6,000 km along the eastern Adriatic, is under increasing pressure from tourism, which has led to the construction of artificial beaches, especially gravel pocket beaches. However, insufficient knowledge of appropriate design parameters and hydraulic engineering structures has led to significant material losses and costly beach maintenance. This study investigates the profitability of constructing submerged sills and their optimal geometry to mitigate erosion, stabilize artificial gravel beaches, and reduce material loss and the need for costly nourishment. The study also aims to improve beach protection and increase coastal biodiversity. Natural forces such as waves, sea currents, and freshwater springs, alongside human interventions such as beach nourishment, contribute to morphological changes that require frequent and expensive maintenance. From 2015 to 2019, Croatia spent around 6 million euros on beach restoration, highlighting the economic burden of erosion during harsh winters.
While natural gravel beaches can recover from storm events, artificial beaches are at risk of permanent material loss. Using coastal monitoring systems, including unmanned aerial vehicles and the XBeach-Gravel numerical model, this research will analyze the morphodynamics of artificial gravel beaches and the effects of submerged sills on wave energy dissipation and material transport. The results will serve as a guide for the optimal design of artificial gravel beaches in Croatia and similar low-energy coastal areas to promote sustainable coastal management, reduce long-term maintenance costs, and protect marine ecosystems.
SPRING 2025 PREVIEW
Jan 08: Dr. Sophia Brumer
Aerology Laboratory (LAERO), Toulouse, France
Guest of Milan Curcic, Department of Ocean Sciences
On Sub-Mesoscale Air-Sea Interactions in Extratropical Windstorms
Windstorms associated with extratropical cyclones are destructive natural hazards. We are interested in elucidating the processes involved in the formation of near-surface extreme winds, and my focus is on wave and wave-breaking related processes. Though crucial for their societal impact, these processes are not well understood and too small-scale to be explicitly represented in numerical weather prediction models. Waves modulate air-sea exchanges, mix the upper ocean, and inject sea spray into the atmosphere when breaking. Air-sea fluxes of enthalpy and momentum greatly influence the dynamics of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). Waves increase the surface roughness but sea spray loading may act as a buffer layer reducing drag and stabilizing the MABL. Larger droplets increase air-sea enthalpy and decrease momentum transfers, thus promoting the intensification of tropical cyclones, but what of extratropical cyclones?
In this talk, I will give an overview of ongoing and planned work at the Laboratoire d'Aérologie (LAERO) in Toulouse, France, on sub-mesoscale ocean-wave-atmosphere interactions in extratropical cyclones. Ongoing work will be illustrated through three case studies: 1) the Mediterranean cyclone Adrian, where sub-mesoscale wind rolls show strong sensitivity to air-sea fluxes; 2) the North Atlantic storm Alex, where wave coupling influences mesoscale jets and the downward momentum transport; and 3) the cold
wake producing medicane (Mediterranean Hurricane) Ianos, where the ocean induces a negative feedback similar to that seen in certain tropical cyclones.
Future work aims at establishing a coherent air-sea coupled framework for numerical weather predictions, which includes the impact of waves on roughness, of sea spray on the MABL, and takes into account relative alignment between the wind and wave systems. For this purpose, we are designing realistic coupled simulations with horizontal resolutions approaching those of Large Eddy Simulations. These will allow gauging the scale of impacts of non-resolved and poorly constrained processes, such as sea spray generation and subsequent heat and momentum exchanges within the MABL. Field measurements needed to evaluate these simulations will include the NAWDIC field campaign, which will sample North Atlantic storms over the winter of 2025/2026. Future campaigns in the Mediterranean / Ionian Sea and the south Indian Ocean are also under consideration.
Sophia Brumer is a CNRS researcher specialized in ocean-wave-atmosphere interactions at the Aerology Laboratory (LAERO) in Toulouse, France. She obtained her BSc degree from the University of Miami and her PhD from Columbia University, where she investigated the role of waves and wave breaking on air-sea gas transfer based on shipborne measurements. She then joined the Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS, Brest, France) for a series of postdocs revolving around the role of waves on an ocean tidal temperature front and the impact of sea spray on the marine atmospheric boundary layer using coupled models. Since September 2023, she is at the LAERO where her work seeks to understand and quantify the role of sea state, wave breaking, and sea spray on wind and rain extremes in low-pressure systems.
Jan 22: Dr. Alina Nathanaël Dossa
Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School
Feb 12: Yixin "Berry" Wen
Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville
Feb 19: NO SEMINAR (SLAB 103 not available)
