COMPASS Friday

FALL 2026
Fridays at 11:00 am, Rosenstiel School Auditorium / Virtual Auditorium

Aug 21: NO SEMINAR

Aug 28: NO SEMINAR

Sep 04: NO SEMINAR

Sep 11: NO SEMINAR

Sep 18: NO SEMINAR

Sep 25: Drs. Dan Collins and Emerson LaJoie
NOAA / NWS / NCEP Climate Prediction Center, Riverdale Park, MD
Guests of Marybeth Arcodia, Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Accessing Sources of Predictability for
Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Climate Prediction

Predictability of climate on S2S timescales emerges in dynamical models from fundamental physical principles on the grid scale to the extent that they describe large-scale sources of predictability. For example, climate phenomena such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) are known sources of predictability at this timescale. However, dynamical models are imperfect in their description of the climate system, limiting their prediction skill, relative to theoretical predictability limits. Statistical methods have long been applied to both optimize the extraction of information from dynamical model forecasts, and to make statistical predictions from relationships between current and future states of the climate system, without explicitly describing physics. While artificial intelligence (AI) systems are being developed to extend these concepts, extracting potentially nonlinear information from large multivariate datasets, currently applied forecast tools generally use linear statistical methods and are limited in their consideration of state-dependent predictability, i.e. forecasts of opportunity. This talk describes some of the methods currently employed by the National Weather Service / Climate Prediction Center to access predictability from statistical and dynamical models, as well as methods to combine or consolidate models. The skill and limitations of these forecast systems, as well as the potential for development of new forecast tools, will be discussed.

Oct 02: AVAILABLE

Oct 09: NO SEMINAR (Rosenstiel School faculty meeting)

Oct 16: Student Seminars

Christina Schuler (ATM)

Stephen Casey (OCE)

Oct 23: Student Seminars

Abigail McDonnell (ATM)

Samuel Ephraim (MPO)

Shanna Chamhitt (ATM)

Oct 30: Reserved for visitors of Siyuan Wang, ATM

Nov 06: NO SEMINAR (SUSTAIN event in Auditorium)

Nov 13: Katrina Simi
Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School
(1-hour OCE student seminar)

Nov 20: Victoria Pizzini
Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School
(1-hour ATM student seminar)

Nov 27: NO SEMINAR (Thanksgiving Recess)

Dec 04: Snigdha Samantaray
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School
(1-hour MPO student seminar)

Feb 12: NO SEMINAR (Parents Council in Auditorium)